Monthly Archives: May 2012

Gold – due a reversal soon?

Still as attractive as ever

I must admit that I am a gold bug. I think that in the face of an economic crisis and/or high debt levels in an economy – governments solve their problems by printing more money, and encouraging inflation. As we’ve seen already, central banks have followed a zero-interest rate policy, embarked on two rounds of shameless money printing Quantitative Easing, and have had little interest in targeting inflation (CPI inflation hasn’t been under the 2% target since 2009). This policy is understandable, many people would prefer monetary policy to try and encourage growth rather than keep a lid on inflation. However what this means in the long-term, is that the purchasing power of all fiat (paper) currencies is gradually being destroyed, and if you look over the course of history, this has happened before and the one asset which has held its value is gold.

Ready to bounce?

I am not a big fan of technical analysis, but I think this weekly chart shows us a lot. Gold hit an all time high last summer of $1921 before it began to retreat again – as gold mania emerged. However since that point, it has dipped to the $1520-1530 mark twice before finding strong support. Now, I think by the end of the week we will have touched those levels, and it should rebound strongly off them.

Usually in times of crisis, such as these in Europe, you would expect the price of gold to be a lot higher than it is. Gold is traditionally seen as an Armageddon hedge – if the stock market collapses, the printers are on full blast in central banks, and commercial banks are in trouble – then surely you would keep your money in something that is an exceptional store of value. Interestingly the IMF is buying more gold, as Zerohedge wrote on Monday

When wonkish blogs suggest gold ownership as a hedge for the political idiocy of the world, it is mockingly shrugged off. When the BRICs add gold, it is eschewed in a ‘well, its diversification’ argument. But when the bankers’ bankers’ bank – The IMF – starts adding Gold to its reserves to cover higher expected credit risk losses (read major devaluations of fiat currency exposure), perhaps – just perhaps – the ‘rationality put‘ we noted earlier is becoming a little more expensive in the minds of Lagarde and her colleagues. As Bloomberg News reports, “The Fund is facing increased credit risk in light of a surge in program lending in the context of the global crisis,” the IMF staff wrote in a report released today, adding “there is a need to increase the Fund’s reserves in order to help mitigate the elevated credit risks,” and as CommodityOnline added: “The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is planning to purchase more than $2 billion worth of gold on account of rising global risks. The IMF currently holds around 2800 tonnes of gold at various depositories”.

If the Euro does fracture, as I have argued before, then everyone will suddenly become scared about the banks and the entire financial system. That is when gold will really show its true shining colours – and I think we could easily see $2000-$3000 an ounce, potentially even more. Therefore, when gold makes a dip over the next few days – I see it at as a perfect buying opportunity with a stop-loss at $1510, just in case it does fall further.

I know I have advocated buying gold before at higher levels, and that plan had gone awry, but I maintain my view and I believe there are a lot of gold bugs sitting on the sidelines, just waiting to crawl into the market again. Once this happens, gold will not look back.

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Posted by on May 15, 2012 in Trading Ideas


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Eurozone crisis – why you should avoid listening to the mainstream press

The best use of newspapers?

A few months ago, when I was starting up this blog and my trading, I would begin my day by reading the finance section in the Telegraph and the Financial Times on my smartphone. At the same time, I discovered blogs like The Slog and Zerohedge.

As time passed, though, it became ever clearer that most journalists in the mainstream financial press were trapped in a 24/7 news cycle, and never analysing the real underlying issues. One moment they would praise Merkozy for solving the problems of the Eurozone – markets would rise and the world was saved. The next, the Eurozone was falling apart and it seemed as though nothing could be done to save the peripheral eurozone states.

However, if you were reading the aforementioned blogs, and/or had an independent and an analytical mind – you would have realised that the crisis was always there all along, and all the politicians were doing was kicking the can down the road. The eurozone crisis was/is not going to go away without either a collapse of the Euro or a large scale default by some Eurozone countries.

Now tonight I was reading the column by Philip Aldrick in The Telegraph – which almost made me spit out my tea.

Greece is at the epicentre of a new euro crisis – and its chaos will spread

If Greece refused the money, or if the IMF refused to lend, the consequences would be dire. With the economy plunged into immediate crisis by the currency’s collapse, an even more severe austerity would be thrust upon the people. There simply would not be the money to public sector pay wages, for example. With tensions seething, the neo-Nazis might even gain further ground.

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.

Firstly, the crisis was there all along, so it is not a “new euro crisis”. It did not miraculously reappear overnight after being solved. The Greek election was planned for the weekend, and a collapse in the pro-bailout parties’ support was always on the cards. If you don’t believe me, you were not reading The Slog.

Secondly, if Greece left the Eurozone and the new drachma collapsed, then the Greek economy would not nosedive, rather, it would stride onwards. Tourists would flock to Greece to take advantage of cheap (drachma) holidays, and a devaluation would make Greece’s general price level much lower to foreigners. Growth would return, and unemployment would tumble from an export-led recovery.

Thirdly, there seems to be a real issue with political correctness regarding the neo-nazi Golden Dawn party. Of course, they may be a bit nutty – but Greeks were putting two fingers up at the old political establishment, Brussels’ draconian bailout terms and savage austerity. Keeping Golden Dawn out of power should not be a priority – they are merely a symptom of rebellion against the EU. If you repress the Greek people through humiliating bailout terms, then they will vote for anyone who will stand up against them.

However – most of that is tangential to my point, which is you should not use the newspapers as your primary source for information these days. Read The Slog, Zerohedge, & Seeking Alpha (for several opinions) too, and you will be surprised at what you find and how accurate many of their predictions are.

But this also has ramifications for traders and journalists.

Traders who are armed with the truth, despite what is being said in the mainstream press, will surely profit from the information disparity between themselves and the other market traders who digest the FT, and the newswires.

As for journalists, if they were prepared to go out on a limb more, do more investigative research, or even just copy stories from the blogosphere – like the recent pillaging of Greek university and hospital funds – then they would have some incredible scoops which would propel their careers.

In the meantime though, I rather like this information gap – because I can see what the news agenda will be before many people are aware of it. But then again, maybe the Eurozone crisis will be resolved (once more) by the end of the week?

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Posted by on May 8, 2012 in Trading Ideas


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INTERVIEW: How monkeys are better than fund managers – Pete Comley on his new book

Pete Comley was on his allotment last year listening to David Kuo’s podcast for the Motley Fool. The host was discussing a share trading competition for schools, and how 61 of the 72 teams had failed to beat the index.

David: “Do you know what? In the wider industry, in the professional fund management industry, these statistics are almost identical to what happens. Out of all the funds that are available for people to buy, approximately 15% of professional fund managers will beat the market, and 85% of them will not.”

As I forked over my vegetable plot, those words went round in my head. I then stopped and listened to it again. Had I heard it right – that virtually all professional fund managers, that were paid millions in bonuses – couldn’t beat the market. Surely it wasn’t true?

Over the next few months, Pete researched the industry and wrote a book about it. Indeed it was true. A monkey with a pin who picked and held stocks at random beat the majority of investment ‘experts’. Furthermore he argues that most people would be better of they just kept their money in the bank, rather than investing in funds.

Here follows an interview with Pete – you can download his book, Monkey With a Pin, FOR FREE at his website

Meet your new financial advisor

Some people will read the book and think, isn’t this a bit grim? Because if they’re in cash they are going to be ‘financially repressed’ by inflation and if they are in shares many will pay large fees. Is there an optimistic view of what you’ve discovered?

Yes, I think there are two optimistic views on it. The first is that once you understand what all your potential pitfalls are in a trading system, you can then effectively game the system. You know where not to lose your money so you can actually be a much better trader. For example if you had just bought passive ETFs [Electronic Traded Funds which follow the stock market], and you buy and hold them, and you were confident enough that the ETF will still be around in ten years, and you picked a low-fee platform – you could keep your costs down to maybe 0.5% a year. But you have to be actively thinking about the markets and have a strategy.

The other reason to be positive, which is something I hadn’t really appreciated until I did the research, was all this stuff about cycles in the market – which I had never really sort of twigged before. Should have done, but haven’t. But I think it is quite likely that there will be some point in the next two years when the market declines to something worth buying, like the FTSE down to 4,000.

If the FTSE goes near or below 4,000 I’m just going to convert all my cash into shares somewhere, because that – if you look into history there are usually 2 or 3 significant lows in a corrective, secular bear market – and if it were to do that one [4,000], it would be the last low before we start a huge bull run over the next decade or so. I want to be fully invested at that point.

It seems as though individual investors are having to spend more time doing research into the shares to achieve better returns. Do you think there is a new gap in the market for fund managers, and people who do the research and do the legwork?

The simple answer is I don’t think there is a gap in the market. If you read the stories about a company and do the research, you will probably make the wrong decision. You remember in the book I talked about the ‘turtle traders’, the guys taught to be a bit like Eddie Murphy in ‘Trading Places’ where they took 14 people off the street and taught them to trade – and they made, whatever it was, half a billion pounds in a couple of years.

One of the key things they were taught was to effectively never read a paper. Never read a news story. Everything you need to know is in the price already, in the graph, and you just need to trade the breakouts. You just look at it and you trade the breakouts, and don’t read.

I pick up my Investors Chronicle or Shares magazine – in fact I won’t even read Shares magazine again – there’s no point, because all it will tell me is something which it is too late to invest in.

So is there a role for those fund managers [who just buy the news stories]? No, of course there isn’t. I think they will just disappear really – when eventually people realise that.

There are some people out there who are some quite clever traders – and if you want to spend a lot of time, I think you can do something and get some positive returns. But for the average Joe Bloggs in the street, it’s a waste of time. So they should go for a simple thing like passive index trackers if they want to dabble in the stock market.

But if you’re going to dabble, you still have to think about whether you should get in here or there?

I think the answer is, like Buffett, you should buy when the stock market is cheap.  I think my strategy in the future will be one of being a bit like a panther. Just sitting there in the long grass, sleeping, and when some kind of injured animal comes along, I’ll jump out and kill it and I’ll eat it and then I won’t bother to eat for a week or two. Wait for the injured prey to come by.

I agree though, timing is the difficulty – that is where you need a set of rules. For me, I see that FTSE below 4,000 and I don’t know at what point it is going to stop, but if I can get in anywhere below 4,000, I am going to be a happy bunny, long term. In the short term, I might be thinking, I could have got it cheaper, but I’ll still be happy long term, because the potential to go lower isn’t very likely. I might get my darts out as well, and pick ten shares at random – because I know how well that strategy works [i.e. the monkey with the pin]. Some of them will be dogs, but some of them will be stars. I will buy the monkey another banana.


At this point, I talked to Pete about the effect of benchmarking on fund managers portfolios – how benchmarking encourages fund managers to strive towards mediocrity, and to not take risks. The implicit mentality is: “if we fail, we will fail together”. The net effect is that everyone holds similar portfolios and the performance is very closely aligned. No one stands out for brilliance, nor does anyone stand out for shoddiness. For the second version of his book, Pete plans to add another section on this.


You said managers can’t really perform consistently, so should they exist?

Well, I think that whole industry will get disintermediated. I’ve seen it in my industry, I’m a market researcher, in fact I partly helped disintermediate it. I was one of the first people doing online surveys in this country. The industry tried to take me to Professional Standards, for bringing the industry into disrepute by running an online survey. They really were fearing what it would do to their business. They didn’t in the end. Since then the industry has radically changed and the same is going to happen in the fund management industry. People have realised we don’t need most of them.

What I am expecting is that the number of fund managers will shrink substantially, I think we both agree on this, but presumably there will still be a place for good fund managers.

I think there are genuinely people out there who are better than the average and it would be great to know who they are. They are never going to be perfect all the time, but even if they can only do it better than chance, they are worth following. At the moment though there probably aren’t the incentives in the system for them to be able to follow their own real style because of the reasons you were saying. They are being benchmarked all the time. They might have a personal style like mine where they hold cash for a while, and invest at the right time. If you had that kind of style as a fund manager you couldn’t survive the system. But it probably is a more successful strategy.

You make an important point about incentives and I think that it what this industry boils down to. Because if you are an average fund manager, you just need to have an average portfolio, make it similar to your peers – then you get paid your management fee. Is the solution to this to say – you may not charge an annual fee and you can only charge based on your performance?

I agree – the incentives aren’t right. I think there is a lot of logic to that because at the moment the system doesn’t work. If they fail, the punter pays, and if the thing succeeds, the punter pays and is also charged an extra performance fee. It’s not very equal is it? They should only receive a payment if they beat the average – that would wipe out most of them.

The other point is to avoid drawdowns. For example, if a fund manager loses 50% of your portfolio like many did in 2007/8, then you need to have 100% return just to get even again. There needs to be an incentive there to limit the downside risk of these portfolios. Say, if the managers lost you money they would have to make it good themselves.

That would be nice. But wasn’t that the concept of with-profits policies? The life insurers used to sell them a decade or two ago, they said they would smooth out the returns so that if the markets turned down they would chip in some reserves. They weren’t as generous as thought because they were just pocketing most of the profits during good years – so they had big reserves to chip into during the bad years. There’s something unequal about it.

That rounded off our interview and I’d just like to thank Pete for his time and for writing his brilliant FREE book, Monkey with a Pin


Posted by on May 6, 2012 in Trading Ideas


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